This is information from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) website that I found to be interesting and would like to share with those of you who are interested. 

2009 Economic OutlookBy Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist“The U.S. economy has entered a recession and will contract for the next three quarters, and the recovery, from the second half of 2009, will be tepid. The unemployment rate will peak at 6.7 percent by midyear next year before steadily heading down. However, existing home sales will be rising despite challenging economic times.The most important factor driving home sales is affordability. With home prices falling in many parts of the country and mortgage rates still near historic lows, affordability conditions have markedly improved. Even with rising unemployment, nearly 93 percent of households will have jobs. This 93 percent of working households (rather than 95 percent during good economic times) respond to incentives. Added measures, from the first-time homebuyer tax credit to a larger number of mortgage loans qualifying to be purchased by Fannie and Freddie and through the FHA program, will further bring homebuyers to the marketplace.Back in the previous recession, the economy shed nearly 2 million net jobs from 2001 to 2003. All the while, existing home sales rose from 5.2 million to 6.2 million just as jobs were being cut. New home sales likewise rose from 900,000 to 1.1 million. Mortgage rates were falling and housing affordability was rising during these years. The 2 million job cuts were painful, but the economy still had 130 million job holders.An early indication that buyers are responding to incentives was the solid jump in the pending home sales in August to the highest level in over a year. The biggest increases were in areas with rising affordability from sharp reductions in home prices in California, Nevada, and Florida. The expansion will broaden to other markets where home prices have markedly fallen, including Rhode Island, Virginia, and Minnesota. Existing home sales, therefore, will likely breakout from the narrow trading range of 4.8 to 5 million of the past 12 months to 5.2 million by the year end and to 5.4 million in 2009. Even with the improvement, the next year’s sales level will still be well below the 7.1 million peak sales achieved with rampant speculative buying in 2005.New home sales will be a different story. There is an overhang of inventory and homebuilders are being forced to cut back sharply. New housing starts have fallen by about 60 percent from peak activity three years back. Because of the cutback in new home construction, the inventory of vacant new homes on the market has fallen to 408,000 as of August from nearly 600,000 just two years ago. The total inventory - new and existing combined - still remains elevated, so further reduction in building by builders will be welcomed. Because of low housing starts, new home sales will continue to tread at soft levels -under 500,000 in 2009 (far below the 1.2 million peak sales in 2005).On the economic front, recession in itself is not a positive for the housing market because there are fewer job holders. But if a recession is accompanied by rising housing affordability, then home sales can trend higher - as is now. A prolonged deep recession, however - certainly a possibility in light of the most severely tested financial market stress since the Great Depression - can dampen consumer confidence and put up barriers to home buying. Fortunately, the economic downturn appears manageable. Let’s explore why by reviewing each of the key economic data points and their projections.Consumer SpendingConsumer spending accounts for nearly 70 percent of economic activity. Normal, healthy growth is about 3 percent (in real terms above the inflation rate). It grew at only one percent in the first half of this year and is expected to record a mild contraction in the upcoming quarters. Aggregate personal income is likely to have fallen because of fewer jobs. In addition, there has been a sizable decline in net wealth from falling stock prices and falling home values. The combined income and wealth effects will be such that consumer spending, at best, will add nothing to economic growth in 2009. Another government stimulus plan may temporarily raise consumer spending but will do nothing for a long term sustained rise unless the overall economy recovers and begin adding jobs.Business SpendingBusiness spending for equipment turned negative in the recent quarter, not surprising given that corporate profits have fallen for four straight quarters and weak sentiment regarding consumer spending prospects. Construction activity for commercial real estate, which had been growing solidly, will be weakening in light of the credit crunch and rising vacancy rates. One positive picture is on the current lean business inventory conditions. Unlike many past economic downturns when companies had to hold back production because of bloated inventory, the very thin inventory conditions permit companies to ramp up production at the first sign of economic recovery.Government SpendingGovernment spending can create jobs. Upgrading and expanding nation’s infrastructure, hiring more teachers, or building jets and tanks can stimulate the economy over the short-term. But spending without additional tax revenue over the long run can result in higher interest rates. For the short-term at least through 2009, government spending is expected to rise 1 to 2 percent.Net ExportsNet exports have been steadily improving in the past year. The U.S. continues to import more items, but the exports have been booming over the past five years, growing at near double-digit pace. The export growth in the second quarter was very impressive, clocking in at a 12.3 growth rate. The weak U.S. dollar has made U.S. products more competitive. However, the dollar has strengthened of late since the start of the global financial crisis. Foreign countries blame the U.S. for the subprime loans and the credit market turmoil, yet people turn to and trust the dollar in times of the crisis. Foreign countries, initially delighted in seeing the U.S. fall, are now in a panic as their stock markets have started crashing even more sharply than the U.S market. Fair or not, the U.S. economic problem has caused a global economic mess. The strengthening of the U.S. dollar this time around should be viewed positively because there is about a two-year lag time in impacting international trade flows from changes in currency. So the net exports continue to be a positive factor for the economy going into 2009. Also oil prices, which are denominated in dollars, fall when the dollar strengthens. Given that REALTORS® are heavy drivers, lower oil prices are welcome.The Bottom LinePut it all together and what do we have? A recovering economy will help consumer and business spending to turn the corner and the economy to move to a self-sustaining pace. But it requires a catalyst to get things started. The tumbling housing market and subprime mortgage defaults have caused financial markets to freeze and have pushed the economy into a recession. However, recent rising home sales and some sustained momentum will bring the economy back into the fold. Rising home sales will also thin out the housing inventory and begin stabilizing home prices. The credit market will start to unfreeze once home prices have passed bottom. Simply, the economy will not recover without a housing market recovery.Fortunately, policymakers and both Presidential candidates clearly recognize the need to get the housing market moving. The two housing stimulus bills (homebuyer tax credit and higher loan limits), $700 billion Treasury plan and the Federal Reserve’s actions are designed to assure steady mortgage flow and help revive the housing sector. With it, the economy will expand and create jobs. America and its exceptional ingenuity always find a way to move past crises and back to economic prosperity.” 

Coarsegold is a small town on the lower slopes of the Sierra Nevada, not far from California’s exact geographic center and Yosemite National Park. The name Coarsegold was derived from nearby Coarsegold Creek, also known as Coarse Gold Gulch, in which gold rush prospectors found large nuggets of gold.

Coarsegold is rarely mentioned as part of the mother lode—but it is, in fact, the southernmost populated settlement in California’s famed mother lode territory. The town was once a stage stop for Yosemite-bound travelers. The Golden Chain Highway (State Route 49) through California’s old gold rush towns and foothill topography begins about seven miles north, in the town of Oakhurst.

Coarsegold consists of scattered ranches, homes on big lots, Indian trust land, and “estate-style” subdivisions. The most populated section is strung along an eight-to 10-mile stretch of State Highway 41 in Eastern Madera County. It’s well worth a trip to visit the town of Coarsegold but better yet to buy and own a piece of history. It’s a great place to live and raise a family. Go see my friends at Montecino and Associates Real Estate.

Today I took my children to the Historic Cobb Ranch located just North of Fresno off of Highway 41.  When we arrived I did not realize that it cost $5.00 just to enter.  My first thought was to turn around, go to another pumpkin patch, and save that $5.00.  I paid the measley $5.00 and was glad I did.  It was such a cool experience for the children.  The Cobb Ranch really knows how to entertain its guests.  The grounds are unbelievably tidy, there are animals to see, a corm maze to get lost in, a hayride, a train ride and many others attractions.  My children had such a blast.  I was happy to support such a wonderful place.  I know their Christmas Tree Farm is just as exciting and wonderful. 

Are you looking to do something new for a change?  The Golden Chain Theatre is a great way to spend an evening full of fun and entertainment.  Now through September 14^th, they are currently presenting Love, Sick, and Montezuma’s Gold.  Opening night, August 2, is already SOLD OUT!!  The Golden Chain Theatre has a long history in Madera County’s Oakhurst area.  It is a 19^th century historic and melodramatic theatre.  This theatre located on Highway 41 just north of town in Oakhurst has been around 1965 when community members thought that Oakhurst needed something to offer its tourists on their way to Yosemite National Park.  For more information and tickets log onto http://www.goldenchaintheatre.org/ 

COLLIN RAYE is COMING to TOWNChukchansi Gold Casino in Coarsegold, California is hosting Collin Raye August 1^st.  Collin Raye has earned five Platinum Albums, he has had fifteen #1 hits and twenty-four top 10’s.  He has an amazing voice that captivates audiences of all ages.  It is not everyday a talented musician comes to Madera County.  I would encourage all those living in the mountain areas of Coarsegold, Oakhurst, Ahwahnee, Bass Lake, Raymond, North Fork and those in Fresno, Clovis and neighboring cities to take a night to enjoy the music performed by Collin Raye.  Ticket prices range from 20 to 30 dollars and can be purchased at the Gallery Boutique or at ticketmaster.com.  You will receive a $5 discount when showing your Rewards Card at the Gallery Boutique.  To find out more about Collin Raye log on to http://www.collinraye.com/ .  In addition to attending an amazing show, you will have a chance to win $500 for more information on how to win “Post Show Dough” log onto http://www.chukchansigold.com/entertainment/index.html .  

Surviving the Heat Wave

With record breaking temperatures, what can we do to keep cool?  We are so lucky to live in the mountain community; there are many places to go and activities to do to avoid the heat.  Cooling centers are opened to the public at the Coarsegold Community Center, Oakhurst Sierra Senior Center, in North Fork and Mariposa.  If you are looking for some fun, indoor activities try visiting Chukchansi Gold Resort and Casino for food, fun, and entertainment, going the Met Cinema to watch a movie, or visiting the local Oakhurst branch library.  If you have children, the Children’s Museum is a great place to take the kids as well as Have a Ball which is an indoor sports arena for kids of all ages.  If you are looking for an outdoor activity to keep you cool, consider driving to Yosemite Valley or Mariposa Groves for a hike, cooling off with a swim at Bass Lake or renting a boat or jet ski to enjoy, or you could visit the pool at Yosemite High School’s Baker Swim Complex.  There are many ways to stay cool in our mountain community.  Use your imagination and let me know what other ideas you can come up with. 

Quaint, romantic, intimate and charming all describe the Tin Lizzie Bed and Breakfast.  This lovely B & B is located in Fish Camp, which is two miles from the Southern entrance to Yosemite National Park.

The stunning décor will take you back to elegant Victorian times, but guests will enjoy all of the luxury of a 1st class getaway.  Guests have their choice of staying in various rooms in the “mansion” or an attached private cottage.

Their romance package for two is sure to thrill.  Guests will experience fine dining, breakfast on their own private balcony, a picnic lunch, chocolate covered strawberries with sparkling cider at bedtime, a dozen roses, and even popcorn and marshmallows roasted at the open outdoor fire pit.  One of the most interesting experiences in this package is being able to drive a Ford Model A or Model T for the day.  Imagine touring Yosemite with the wind whipping through your hair, in one of these fantastic cars!

The Tin Lizzie is without a doubt the perfect spot to enjoy a honeymoon or just relax and enjoy one of the most majestic places on earth.  For more information or reservations on staying in this divine location, contact the Tin Lizzie at (559) 641-7731.        

The Oakhurst Area Chamber of Commerce will hold its Spring Mixer and Business Expo from 5-7 pm, this Thursday (April 3). This is a great opportunity to meet and greet local business owners and chat with your neighbors. If you feel like you should network more, but cannot find the time, this is the event for you. This is your chance to make connections with a host of your neighbors, all at once. It will be time worth spent.

Although it is a good time to network, you don’t have to be a business owner to attend. It is always good to know who you might do business with, whose shop you might want to frequent or who has products that might improve your life.

Businesses will have booths for you to visit as well as freebies to introduce you to their goods and services. There will also be raffles too and you have to be there to win. Drawings start at 6:45pm.

For more information, contact the Oakhurst Area Chamber of Commerce at 683-7766. You can also send an e-mail to chamber@oakhurstchamber.com.

The ways in which people recycle things these days is amazing. Some items, like paper, are re-purposed into something much like what they once were, while other items take on a whole new life in recycled form

At Nature’s Leaf Jewelry, beautiful and decorative products are made from nature’s own decorations—leaves, acorns, seashells and pinecones. The pieces remain as ornamental as they are in nature, but they take on new functions as jewelry, bookmarks, napkin rings, barrettes, wine glass charms and magnets.

After looking for pieces that will make the most exquisite works of art, keepsakes are made using electroplating. You can choose pieces crafted with 18-karat gold, Rhodium Silver and multicolored copper. These pieces will not tarnish and they are also hypoallergenic.

These original creations are available in the store or you can have them shipped to you in about 10 days. If you are looking for a unique gift for yourself or someone else, consider going au naturel.

Nature’s Leaf Jewelry
1066 Saratoga Avenue
Suite 200
San Jose, CA 95129
888-838-7544
408-244-5326

Do you sit at home watching cooking shows and salivating over the food you see being prepared? Do you know even know how to boil water?  Or are you cooking skills just average, so that you are ready to kick it up a notch?

No matter what your skill level, you can learn how to cook like a pro at the three day Spring cook classes being held at Erna’s Elderberry House Restaurant. These classes don’t require advanced knowledge, or even basic knowledge. All they ask is that you wear shoes you’ll want to stand in for a while and that you come ready to have a good time.

There is a session this week (March 5-7) and another next week (March 12-14). Class is in session from 8:30am-4:00pm each day.

Participants will get a recipe book, hands-on training, learn about how to combine food and wine, plus a lunch and a six course dinner each day.

To learn more contact Christina Overbraugh at 559-683-6800.

Erna’s Elderberry House Restaurant in the kitchen
48688 Victoria Lane
Oakhurst, CA 93644