This is information from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) website that I found to be interesting and would like to share with those of you who are interested. 

2009 Economic OutlookBy Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist“The U.S. economy has entered a recession and will contract for the next three quarters, and the recovery, from the second half of 2009, will be tepid. The unemployment rate will peak at 6.7 percent by midyear next year before steadily heading down. However, existing home sales will be rising despite challenging economic times.The most important factor driving home sales is affordability. With home prices falling in many parts of the country and mortgage rates still near historic lows, affordability conditions have markedly improved. Even with rising unemployment, nearly 93 percent of households will have jobs. This 93 percent of working households (rather than 95 percent during good economic times) respond to incentives. Added measures, from the first-time homebuyer tax credit to a larger number of mortgage loans qualifying to be purchased by Fannie and Freddie and through the FHA program, will further bring homebuyers to the marketplace.Back in the previous recession, the economy shed nearly 2 million net jobs from 2001 to 2003. All the while, existing home sales rose from 5.2 million to 6.2 million just as jobs were being cut. New home sales likewise rose from 900,000 to 1.1 million. Mortgage rates were falling and housing affordability was rising during these years. The 2 million job cuts were painful, but the economy still had 130 million job holders.An early indication that buyers are responding to incentives was the solid jump in the pending home sales in August to the highest level in over a year. The biggest increases were in areas with rising affordability from sharp reductions in home prices in California, Nevada, and Florida. The expansion will broaden to other markets where home prices have markedly fallen, including Rhode Island, Virginia, and Minnesota. Existing home sales, therefore, will likely breakout from the narrow trading range of 4.8 to 5 million of the past 12 months to 5.2 million by the year end and to 5.4 million in 2009. Even with the improvement, the next year’s sales level will still be well below the 7.1 million peak sales achieved with rampant speculative buying in 2005.New home sales will be a different story. There is an overhang of inventory and homebuilders are being forced to cut back sharply. New housing starts have fallen by about 60 percent from peak activity three years back. Because of the cutback in new home construction, the inventory of vacant new homes on the market has fallen to 408,000 as of August from nearly 600,000 just two years ago. The total inventory - new and existing combined - still remains elevated, so further reduction in building by builders will be welcomed. Because of low housing starts, new home sales will continue to tread at soft levels -under 500,000 in 2009 (far below the 1.2 million peak sales in 2005).On the economic front, recession in itself is not a positive for the housing market because there are fewer job holders. But if a recession is accompanied by rising housing affordability, then home sales can trend higher - as is now. A prolonged deep recession, however - certainly a possibility in light of the most severely tested financial market stress since the Great Depression - can dampen consumer confidence and put up barriers to home buying. Fortunately, the economic downturn appears manageable. Let’s explore why by reviewing each of the key economic data points and their projections.Consumer SpendingConsumer spending accounts for nearly 70 percent of economic activity. Normal, healthy growth is about 3 percent (in real terms above the inflation rate). It grew at only one percent in the first half of this year and is expected to record a mild contraction in the upcoming quarters. Aggregate personal income is likely to have fallen because of fewer jobs. In addition, there has been a sizable decline in net wealth from falling stock prices and falling home values. The combined income and wealth effects will be such that consumer spending, at best, will add nothing to economic growth in 2009. Another government stimulus plan may temporarily raise consumer spending but will do nothing for a long term sustained rise unless the overall economy recovers and begin adding jobs.Business SpendingBusiness spending for equipment turned negative in the recent quarter, not surprising given that corporate profits have fallen for four straight quarters and weak sentiment regarding consumer spending prospects. Construction activity for commercial real estate, which had been growing solidly, will be weakening in light of the credit crunch and rising vacancy rates. One positive picture is on the current lean business inventory conditions. Unlike many past economic downturns when companies had to hold back production because of bloated inventory, the very thin inventory conditions permit companies to ramp up production at the first sign of economic recovery.Government SpendingGovernment spending can create jobs. Upgrading and expanding nation’s infrastructure, hiring more teachers, or building jets and tanks can stimulate the economy over the short-term. But spending without additional tax revenue over the long run can result in higher interest rates. For the short-term at least through 2009, government spending is expected to rise 1 to 2 percent.Net ExportsNet exports have been steadily improving in the past year. The U.S. continues to import more items, but the exports have been booming over the past five years, growing at near double-digit pace. The export growth in the second quarter was very impressive, clocking in at a 12.3 growth rate. The weak U.S. dollar has made U.S. products more competitive. However, the dollar has strengthened of late since the start of the global financial crisis. Foreign countries blame the U.S. for the subprime loans and the credit market turmoil, yet people turn to and trust the dollar in times of the crisis. Foreign countries, initially delighted in seeing the U.S. fall, are now in a panic as their stock markets have started crashing even more sharply than the U.S market. Fair or not, the U.S. economic problem has caused a global economic mess. The strengthening of the U.S. dollar this time around should be viewed positively because there is about a two-year lag time in impacting international trade flows from changes in currency. So the net exports continue to be a positive factor for the economy going into 2009. Also oil prices, which are denominated in dollars, fall when the dollar strengthens. Given that REALTORS® are heavy drivers, lower oil prices are welcome.The Bottom LinePut it all together and what do we have? A recovering economy will help consumer and business spending to turn the corner and the economy to move to a self-sustaining pace. But it requires a catalyst to get things started. The tumbling housing market and subprime mortgage defaults have caused financial markets to freeze and have pushed the economy into a recession. However, recent rising home sales and some sustained momentum will bring the economy back into the fold. Rising home sales will also thin out the housing inventory and begin stabilizing home prices. The credit market will start to unfreeze once home prices have passed bottom. Simply, the economy will not recover without a housing market recovery.Fortunately, policymakers and both Presidential candidates clearly recognize the need to get the housing market moving. The two housing stimulus bills (homebuyer tax credit and higher loan limits), $700 billion Treasury plan and the Federal Reserve’s actions are designed to assure steady mortgage flow and help revive the housing sector. With it, the economy will expand and create jobs. America and its exceptional ingenuity always find a way to move past crises and back to economic prosperity.” 

If you haven’t already made plans to attend the Eastern Madera County Town Hall meeting tonight at 6pm at the Senior Center in Oakhurst, you really should consider making plans to do so. Eastern Madera is our home and we need everyone’s input and participation so that it continues to be a great place to live.

Director of Emergency Services Supervisor Tom Wheeler and Sheriff John Anderson will be imparting valuable information about how to keep your home safe from wildfire. They will answer questions about what it means to live in oak woodlands and remind you that there are so many things you can do to safeguard your family and your property. Our area’s unique plant life makes for spectacular views and at the same time we have to be aware that wildfires are also a part of living in Eastern Madera.

No need to worry about starving or getting dinner together: food service will start at 5:30 pm and hot dogs are $1. You can e-mail jstanovich@madera-county.com or call 559-675-7770 for more information.

The Planning Department has the enviable task of helping to shape and plan out our area, both present and future. This department also has the unenviable task of investigating and enforcing code violations.

If you know of a code violation and you report it to the Planning Department, you should know that they will not inform the violator that you made them aware of the issue. When the situation is not life-threatening is can take at least a month to get the ball rolling. This is because someone from the department has to verify the violation before the property owner is notified. And then they have to give the property owner some time to make amends.

If you are someone who has received notice of a code violation on your property, please know that the department is willing to work with you. They will visit you to and talk with you so you understand exactly why you were given such a notice. A Code Enforcement Officer will also inform you of steps you can take to rectify the situation. In other words, you won’t be expected to automatically know how to resolve the issue.

Some of you may wonder—what exactly does a planning department do? What is it that they are planning? Sometimes it seems as if everything in an area has already been earmarked for something, so what is there left to plan?

This department serves to map out what happens in the unincorporated part of Madera County. They oversee land use to ensure that is falls within zoning regulations. This means that a huge superstore cannot just come in to build their next location in an area that has been slated from residential use only.

Not only do they have to look at zoning, they must consider traffic flow and other factors that will affect the area once a new structure is built or whenever an element is added or taken away from a neighborhood.

When someone needs a building permit—this is where they do because the planning department reviews and approves these permits.

They issue zoning and conditional use permits and they are the ones who call people to task when they misuse these permits.

The planning department has charge over are programs that have been adopted at the state level. These programs cover areas like affordable housing, surface mining and land conservation.

Plan to return on Thursday to read more about the work of this department.

The Madera Board of Supervisors meets every Tuesday at 9 a.m. in the Madera County Government Center. You can view the agenda for today’s meeting here.

The great thing about democracy is that we are given the opportunity to participate in government. If you have never attended a meeting of the Board of Supervisors, you should take some time to do so.

The general public can attend these meetings without special invitation and comment on the proceedings. The first 15 minutes of any regular meeting is the time when citizens can come forward to talk about matters that are within the governance of the Board of Supervisors. The board is willing to listen, but cannot promise to take action on matters that are presented during this time period, but your chance to bring something to their attention.

Madera citizens can also comment on the items that are included in the agenda when the come up for discussion. The board asks that you limit your speaking time to 3 minutes. Also, procedure calls for you to give your name and address for the record.

Some consider it public art, others think it is a nuisance. Graffiti has been with us for a long time. There are examples dating back to the days of the ancient Greeks and Romans. Perhaps even those cave drawings that people are not so excited to find were considered to be graffiti in another age. If someone came into my home and drew on the walls, I’d certainly be upset.

Did you know that the singular of graffiti is graffito? Probably not. And if you are bothered by graffiti you are probably uninterested in the various forms of the word.

If you are bothered by graffiti you’ve seen recently in Madera County, there is something you can do about it. You can contact the County Planning Department online or by phone at 559-675-7821. The county’s Graffiti Abatement Mission Statement is “
Promoting a graffiti-free way of life for residents of Madera County.” And to make good on this statement, they will remove graffiti for free.

If you go online and fill out the form at the planning department’s website, please know that your information will only be used in an effort to locate the graffiti. On that site, you’ll also find a map of the Madera County Graffiti Abatement Zone showing the area’s where the department will assist with graffiti removal.

For graffiti found within the Madera city limits, you must call the City of Madera Revitalization Office at 559-661-5119.

Sometimes one man’s trash is another man’s treasure…but at other times, one person’s trash is of no use to anyone. This especially true when it comes to getting rid of chemicals and other possibly dangerous substances.

If you are a reside or run a business in Madera County and have hazardous waste that you do not know how to dispose of, the county has made provisions for you. The Madera County Household Hazardous Waste Collection Facility is there to get rid of things that cannot go out with regular trash.

These items include things that you may not consider to be hazardous. Some of them are common household cleaners that you may often throw away without thinking. These include antifreeze, brake fluid, grease, batteries, motor oil, cleaners containing ammonia, drain cleaners, deodorizers, aerosol cans, spot removers, oven cleaners, moth balls, chemicals used for photography, art supplies, paint removers, paint, solvents, insect spray, weed killers, pool cleaning chemicals, pesticides, and wood preservatives.

They ask that you only bring 15 gallons worth of liquids or 125 pounds of solids each time you come.

They also ask that you not bring the following items because they cannot accept them: medical wastes, radioactive waste, and large compressed gas cylinders.

The facility is located at Fairmead Landfill, 21739 Road 19 Chowchilla, CA 93610, and is open from 9 am-1 pm on Saturdays, with the exception of major holidays.
Individuals can call 559-665-3099 for more information, while business can call 805-481-9213.

Sometimes when we are searching for something we forget to look in the most obvious places. Maybe you or someone you know has been looking for work, combing websites like Monster or CareerBuilder hoping to find that perfect job. Or you’ve signed on to get e-mail updates and everyday look in your inbox hoping that today will be the day that you find the message you’ve been waiting to see.

If this is you, don’t forget to look in your own backyard. The job you’re looking for could be posted on a flyer at your local supermarket or grocery store. It could be listed in the “Help Wanted” section of the local newspaper.

Another place you can look is the Human Resource section of the Madera County website. They have plenty of great jobs. The work you’re looking for could be working to help make life better right here in Madera County. There are open and continuous recruitments for a variety of jobs such as: Fire Equipment Manager, Pre-licensed Mental Health Clinician, Associate Civil Engineer, Correctional Officers, Special Districts Road Manager, Agricultural and Standards Inspectors, Office Assistant, and Registered Dietician.

Go to the website to check out some of the great opportunities that Madera County has to offer.

You may have heard that there is thing little thing called an election coming up this year…OK, of course you’ve heard about it. But did you know that you must register to vote by January 22?

California will have its very first February presidential election this year on February 5. Like all primaries, this one is important because it has national and local consequences. We’ll leave the talk of the national consequences to the news outlets, but this is a good time to remind you of how your vote will make a difference right in your own backyard.

February 5 will also be a time when Oakhurst residents can cast their votes in favor of or in opposition to incorporation (Measure C). This post I wrote last year put a bug in your ear about the issue. Iit is time to consider the matter again because now you will be casting deciding votes on the matter.

Visit this website for a list of addresses in the proposed area of incorporation. You can only vote on this issue if you live in the proposed town boundaries.

January 22 is also the final day to turn in paperwork if you wish to be an official write-in candidate for the Oakhurst Town Council.

Clearly one of the biggest events of the year in Oakhurst is the Installation Dinner and Dance.  The Chamber of Commerce invites you to join them on Friday, December 7, 2007 at 5:30 p.m..  The festivities will be held at the Pines Resort, Lakeview Room.  Attendees will help welcome into office the new Board of Directors.

The evening will include appetizers, served during the reception with a No Host Bar.  Dinner choices are Prime Rib or Salmon, and will include a salad, wine, and dessert with coffee or tea.

Honoree for the Life Time Achievement Award will be Tommie Underwood.  Winners will also be announced for the “Volunteer of the Year”, “Woman of the Year”, “Man of the Year”, and “Business of the Year”.

After the Installation of Officers, participants will enjoy a night of dancing with Sierra DJ.

Reservations are currently being taken for this event.  The cost is $45 per person, or you may reserve a table for 8 for $360.  You may also sponsor the Installation Dinner for $500.  This price will include a table for 8, an announcement recognizing your contribution with special recognition in the program that is provided to participants.   For an extra $50, you may want to enter the table top decoration contest.  If you are entering the contest, plan on arriving between 3 p.m. and 6 p.m. to decorate your table.  The winner will be announced at the dinner and will receive $100. 

Sponsoring an award recipient’s table is available for an additional $500 donation.  Be sure to notate which recipient you would like to sponsor.  Donations are also being accepted from those who are not able to attend this event.

If you would like to make a reservation or receive more information, call the Oakhurst Chamber of Commerce at (559-683-7766) or visit their website.