This is information from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) website that I found to be interesting and would like to share with those of you who are interested. 

2009 Economic OutlookBy Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist“The U.S. economy has entered a recession and will contract for the next three quarters, and the recovery, from the second half of 2009, will be tepid. The unemployment rate will peak at 6.7 percent by midyear next year before steadily heading down. However, existing home sales will be rising despite challenging economic times.The most important factor driving home sales is affordability. With home prices falling in many parts of the country and mortgage rates still near historic lows, affordability conditions have markedly improved. Even with rising unemployment, nearly 93 percent of households will have jobs. This 93 percent of working households (rather than 95 percent during good economic times) respond to incentives. Added measures, from the first-time homebuyer tax credit to a larger number of mortgage loans qualifying to be purchased by Fannie and Freddie and through the FHA program, will further bring homebuyers to the marketplace.Back in the previous recession, the economy shed nearly 2 million net jobs from 2001 to 2003. All the while, existing home sales rose from 5.2 million to 6.2 million just as jobs were being cut. New home sales likewise rose from 900,000 to 1.1 million. Mortgage rates were falling and housing affordability was rising during these years. The 2 million job cuts were painful, but the economy still had 130 million job holders.An early indication that buyers are responding to incentives was the solid jump in the pending home sales in August to the highest level in over a year. The biggest increases were in areas with rising affordability from sharp reductions in home prices in California, Nevada, and Florida. The expansion will broaden to other markets where home prices have markedly fallen, including Rhode Island, Virginia, and Minnesota. Existing home sales, therefore, will likely breakout from the narrow trading range of 4.8 to 5 million of the past 12 months to 5.2 million by the year end and to 5.4 million in 2009. Even with the improvement, the next year’s sales level will still be well below the 7.1 million peak sales achieved with rampant speculative buying in 2005.New home sales will be a different story. There is an overhang of inventory and homebuilders are being forced to cut back sharply. New housing starts have fallen by about 60 percent from peak activity three years back. Because of the cutback in new home construction, the inventory of vacant new homes on the market has fallen to 408,000 as of August from nearly 600,000 just two years ago. The total inventory - new and existing combined - still remains elevated, so further reduction in building by builders will be welcomed. Because of low housing starts, new home sales will continue to tread at soft levels -under 500,000 in 2009 (far below the 1.2 million peak sales in 2005).On the economic front, recession in itself is not a positive for the housing market because there are fewer job holders. But if a recession is accompanied by rising housing affordability, then home sales can trend higher - as is now. A prolonged deep recession, however - certainly a possibility in light of the most severely tested financial market stress since the Great Depression - can dampen consumer confidence and put up barriers to home buying. Fortunately, the economic downturn appears manageable. Let’s explore why by reviewing each of the key economic data points and their projections.Consumer SpendingConsumer spending accounts for nearly 70 percent of economic activity. Normal, healthy growth is about 3 percent (in real terms above the inflation rate). It grew at only one percent in the first half of this year and is expected to record a mild contraction in the upcoming quarters. Aggregate personal income is likely to have fallen because of fewer jobs. In addition, there has been a sizable decline in net wealth from falling stock prices and falling home values. The combined income and wealth effects will be such that consumer spending, at best, will add nothing to economic growth in 2009. Another government stimulus plan may temporarily raise consumer spending but will do nothing for a long term sustained rise unless the overall economy recovers and begin adding jobs.Business SpendingBusiness spending for equipment turned negative in the recent quarter, not surprising given that corporate profits have fallen for four straight quarters and weak sentiment regarding consumer spending prospects. Construction activity for commercial real estate, which had been growing solidly, will be weakening in light of the credit crunch and rising vacancy rates. One positive picture is on the current lean business inventory conditions. Unlike many past economic downturns when companies had to hold back production because of bloated inventory, the very thin inventory conditions permit companies to ramp up production at the first sign of economic recovery.Government SpendingGovernment spending can create jobs. Upgrading and expanding nation’s infrastructure, hiring more teachers, or building jets and tanks can stimulate the economy over the short-term. But spending without additional tax revenue over the long run can result in higher interest rates. For the short-term at least through 2009, government spending is expected to rise 1 to 2 percent.Net ExportsNet exports have been steadily improving in the past year. The U.S. continues to import more items, but the exports have been booming over the past five years, growing at near double-digit pace. The export growth in the second quarter was very impressive, clocking in at a 12.3 growth rate. The weak U.S. dollar has made U.S. products more competitive. However, the dollar has strengthened of late since the start of the global financial crisis. Foreign countries blame the U.S. for the subprime loans and the credit market turmoil, yet people turn to and trust the dollar in times of the crisis. Foreign countries, initially delighted in seeing the U.S. fall, are now in a panic as their stock markets have started crashing even more sharply than the U.S market. Fair or not, the U.S. economic problem has caused a global economic mess. The strengthening of the U.S. dollar this time around should be viewed positively because there is about a two-year lag time in impacting international trade flows from changes in currency. So the net exports continue to be a positive factor for the economy going into 2009. Also oil prices, which are denominated in dollars, fall when the dollar strengthens. Given that REALTORS® are heavy drivers, lower oil prices are welcome.The Bottom LinePut it all together and what do we have? A recovering economy will help consumer and business spending to turn the corner and the economy to move to a self-sustaining pace. But it requires a catalyst to get things started. The tumbling housing market and subprime mortgage defaults have caused financial markets to freeze and have pushed the economy into a recession. However, recent rising home sales and some sustained momentum will bring the economy back into the fold. Rising home sales will also thin out the housing inventory and begin stabilizing home prices. The credit market will start to unfreeze once home prices have passed bottom. Simply, the economy will not recover without a housing market recovery.Fortunately, policymakers and both Presidential candidates clearly recognize the need to get the housing market moving. The two housing stimulus bills (homebuyer tax credit and higher loan limits), $700 billion Treasury plan and the Federal Reserve’s actions are designed to assure steady mortgage flow and help revive the housing sector. With it, the economy will expand and create jobs. America and its exceptional ingenuity always find a way to move past crises and back to economic prosperity.” 

What is it with PROP 8?  I don’t understand why those who oppose the prop are fighting what has been voted and decided on by the people.  Don’ t they realize that Californians have spoken?  That is the beauty of system.  We get to vote for what we want, if our vote wins-GREAT, if not- we have to DEAL with it.  You don’t see supporters of McCain/Palin holding rallies and fighting the results.  We have to suck it up and deal with the voice of the majority- even if it is not what we had wanted.    Stop targeting churches and individuals.  Everyone is entitled to their thoughts and opinions.  It is not the fault of any of the churches, pastors, or congregations that Prop 8 passed.  Prop 8 was passed by the people of California.  I don’t get why these opponents don’t accept their defeat and fight back by building a stronger case for the next ballot.                  It passed-deal with it.

“THIS LETTER MAKES MORE SENSE THAN ANYTHING I HAVE SEEN, HEARD, OR READ,

CONCERNING THE UPCOMING ELECTION…



IT’S A LETTER FROM  A U.S. CITIZEN… WHO LIVES IN   ILLINOIS … AND

OBVIOUSLY IS A  ”SELF-THINKER”… NOT JUST A “FOLLOWER”!!!



IF YOU ONLY READ ONE THING, REGARDING THIS ELECTION… LET THIS BE THE ONE

THING!!  AFTER READING IT, YOU WILL PROBABLY WANT TO FORWARD IT TO OTHER

AMERICANS WHO ARE “SELF THINKERS”!!



An impassioned letter from a “nobody.”  But he gives his telephone number

And e-mail at the end.



Sent: Monday, August 18, 2008 3:19 PM

Subject: FW: A letter from Illinois



Dear Friends:



    My name is Joe Porter.  I live in Champaign , Illinois .  I’m 46 years

Old, a born-again Christian, a husband, a father, a small business owner, a

Veteran, and a homeowner. I don’t consider myself to be either conservative

Or liberal, and I vote for the person, not Republican or Democrat.  I don’t

Believe there are “two   Americas ” but that every person in this country
Can

Be whomever and whatever they want to be if they’ll just work to get there

And nowhere else on earth can they find such opportunities.  I believe our

Government should help those who are legitimately downtrodden, and should

Always put the interests of America first.



   The purpose of this message is that I’m concerned about the future of

This great nation. I’m worried that the silent majority of honest,

Hard-working, tax-paying people in this country have been passive for too

Long.  Most folks I know choose not to involve themselves in politics.  They

Go about their daily lives, paying their bills, raising  their kids, and

Doing what they can to maintain the good life.  They vote and consider doing

So to be a sacred trust.  They shake their heads at the political pundits

And so-called “news,” thinking that what they hear is always spun by

Whomever is reporting it.  They can’t understand how elected officials can

Regularly violate the public trust with pork barrel spending.  They don’t

Want government handouts.  They want the government to protect them, not

Raise their taxes for more government programs.



   We are in the unique position in this country of electing our leaders.

It’s a privilege to do so.  I’ve never found a candidate in any election

With whom I agreed on everything.  I’ll wager that most of us don’t even

Agree with our families or spouses 100% of the time.  So when I step into

That voting booth, I always try to look at the big picture and cast my vote

For the man or woman who is best qualified for the job. I’ve hired a lot of

People in my lifetime, and essentially that’s what an election is - a hiring

Process.  Who has the credentials?  Whom do I want working for me?  Whom can

I trust to do the job right?



I’m concerned that a growing number of voters in this country simply don’t

Get it.  They are caught up in a fervor they can’t explain, and calling it

“change.”



“Change what?”  I ask.



“Well, we’re going to change America ” they say.



“In what way?”  I query.



 ”We want someone new and fresh in the White House,” they exclaim.



“So, someone who’s not a politician?”  I say.



“Uh, well, no, we just want a lot of stuff changed, so we’re voting for

Obama,” they state.



“So the current system, the system of freedom and democracy that has

Enabled a man to grow up in this great country, get a fine education, raise

Incredible amounts of money and dominate the news, and win his party’s

Nomination for the White House that system’s all wrong?”



“No, no, that part of the system’s okay we just need a lot of change.”



And so it goes. “Change we can believe in.”



Quite frankly, I don’t believe that vague proclamations of change hold any

Promise for me.  In recent months, I’ve been asking virtually everyone I

Encounter how they’re voting.  I live in   Illinois , so most folks tell me

they’re voting for barrack Obama.  But no one can really tell me why only

that he’s going to change a lot of stuff “Change, change, change.”  I have

yet to find one single person who can tell me distinctly and convincingly

why this man is qualified to be President and Commander-in-Chief of the most

powerful nation on earth other than the fact that he claims he’s going to

implement a lot of change.



We’ve all seen the emails about Obama’s genealogy, his upbringing, his

Muslim background, and his church affiliations.  Let’s ignore this for a

moment.  Put it all aside.  Then ask yourself, “What qualifies this man to

be my president?  That he’s a brilliant orator and talks about change?”



            CHANGE WHAT?



Friends, I’ll be forthright with you.  I believe the American voters who

are supporting barrack Obama don’t have a clue what they’re doing, as

evidenced by the fact that not one of them - NOT ONE of them I’ve spoken to

can spell out his qualifications.  Not even the most liberal media can

explain why he should be elected.







Political experience?  Negligible



Foreign relations?  Non-existent.



Achievements?  Can you name one.



Single piece of legislation as a Senator? Zero



Any Reform Bill as a Senator?  Zero



Someone who wants to unite the country?  If you haven’t read his wife’s

thesis from   Princeton , look it up on the web.



This is who’s lining up to be our next First Lady?  The only thing I can

glean from Obama’s constant harping about change is that we’re in for a lot

of new taxes.



For me, the choice is clear.   I’ve looked carefully at the two leading

applicants for the job, and I’ve made  my choice.



Here’s a question - “Where were you five and a half years ago?  Around

Christmas, 2002.  You’ve had five or six birthdays in that time.  My son has

grown from a sixth grade child to a high school graduate.  Five and a half

years is a good chunk of time. About 2,000 days.  2,000 nights of sleep.  6,

000 meals, give or take.”



John McCain spent that amount of time, from 1967 to 1973, in a North

Vietnamese prisoner-of-war camp.



When offered early release, he refused it.  He considered this offer to be a

public relations stunt by his captors, and insisted that those held longer

than he should be released first.  Did you get that part?  He was offered

his freedom, and he turned it down.  A regimen of beatings and torture

began.



Do you possess such strength of character?  Locked in a filthy cell in a

foreign country, would you turn down your own freedom in favor of your

fellow man?  I submit that’s a quality of character that is rarely found,

and for me, this singular act defines John McCain.



Unlike several presidential candidates in recent years whose military

service is questionable or non-existent, you will not find anyone to

denigrate the integrity and moral courage of this man.  A graduate of

Annapolis , during his Naval service he received the Silver Star, Bronze

Star, Purple Heart and Distinguished Flying Cross.  His own son is now

serving in the Marine Corps in Iraq .  Barack Obama is fond of saying “We

honor John McCain’s service…BUT…” which to me is condescending and

offensive - because what I hear is, “Let’s forget this man’s sacrifice for

his country, and his proven leadership abilities, and talk some more about

change.”



I don’t agree with John McCain on everything - but I am utterly convinced

that he is qualified to be our next President, and I trust him to do what’s

right.  I know in my heart that he has the best interests of our country in

mind.  He doesn’t simply want to be President - he wants to lead   America ,

and there’s a huge difference.  Factually, there is simply no comparison

between the two candidates.  A man of questionable background and motives

who prattles on about change, can’t hold a candle to a man who has devoted

his life in public service to this nation, retiring from the Navy in1981 and

elected to the Senate in1982.



Perhaps Obama’s supporters are taking a stance between old and new.  Maybe

they don’t care about McCain’s service or his strength of character, or his

unblemished qualifications to be President.  Maybe “likeability” is a higher

priority for them than “trust.”  Being a prisoner of war is not what

qualifies John McCain to be President of the United States of America  - but

his demonstrated leadership certainly DOES!!





    Dear friends, it is time for us to stand.  It is time for thinking

Americans to say, “Enough.”  It is time for people of all parties to stop

following the party line.  It is time for anyone who wants to keep America

first, who wants the right man leading their nation, to start a dialogue

with all their friends and neighbors and ask who they’re voting for, and

why.



   There’s a lot of evil in this world.  That should be readily apparent to

all of us by now.  And when faced with that evil as we are now, I want a man

who knows the cost of war on his troops and on his citizens.  I want a man

who puts my family’s interests before any foreign country.



   I want a President who’s qualified to lead.



   I want my country back, and I’m voting for John McCain.”

(source: email circulation)

Can you believe Sara Palin’s talk at the Republican National Convention?  She is awesome and is a great running mate for McCain.  I love how she said that there while Obama and Biden say they will fight for you there is only one candidate who has fought for you.  She is tough and is a women of her word.  I could just imagine what Obama and the democratic supporters were thinking as Palin ended her presentation- they have a lot of work to do in order to beat this candidate.  It is pretty bad when a Vice Presidential candidate has more experience than a Presendial candidate.  Obama, I think you may have just been beat by a women! 

Sara Palin- smart move, bad move, bold move, or brave move??  Gosh, I think McCain’s Vice President choice was smart, bold, and brave.  What a terrific candidate!!!  Here she is a female that stands true to her beliefs and fights for what she believes in.  She is well qualified and has more experience than Obama.  By the way, where does the Obama campaign get off saying she is not qualified and does not have the experience necessary to be VP.  Have you looked at your candidate?  What experience does he have?  Palin is more experienced than Obama so maybe the Obama campaign should lay off the accusations of Palin not being qualified.  In this election that will be based on race, gender, and ethnicity- McCain stepped it up by putting a female on the ticket.  It was a great move.  Obama, maybe you should have chose H. Clinton- too late now!!

If this doesn’t touch you!

http://www.youtube.com/v/ervaMPt4Ha0&autoplay=1
The above is the hottest thing on the internet and on Fox News today. Lizzie Palmer who put this YouTube program together is 15 years old. There have been over 3,000,000 hits as of this morning. In case you missed it, here it is. (if you can’t open it right away, try later – the site may be busy)

If you go to this web site, www.letssaythanks.com, you can pick out a
thank you card and Xerox will print it and it will be sent to a soldier
that is currently serving in Iraq. You can’t pick out who gets it, but
it will go to some member of the armed services.
How AMAZING it would be if we could get everyone we know to send one!!!
This is a great site.
Please send a card. It is FREE and it only takes a second.
Wouldn’t it be wonderful if the soldiers received a bunch of these?
Whether you are for or against the war, our guys and gals over there
need to know we are behind them…

Donald Trump appears to have his eyes on the central valley and Running Horse may be the perfect development in need of such a name and reputation. The failed Running Horse development was auctioned off this last week and purchased by La Jolla Loans whom originally financed the project. The City of Fresno will negotiate the purchase of Running Horse and would like to sell it to Donald Trump. Mr. Trump is now in process of organizing his team to build and complete the project. I am excited to hear of the Trump organization showing an interest in the Central Valley and hope to see Mr. Trump show an interest in future developments in Fresno and Madera Counties. To keep up to date on this development and for information on how to purchase a Trump property in Running Horse just visit this blog regularly for the latest news and information.